Spartak Moscow
FC Orenburg
The model leans Spartak Moscow at 57%. Expected goals: Spartak Moscow 1.92, FC Orenburg 0.71. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%. Spartak Moscow won 3 of their last 6; FC Orenburg won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Spartak Moscow | 65% | 1.54 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.36 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Orenburg | 12% | 8.29 | – | – | – |
Pick: Spartak Moscow. Calibrated probability 57% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.92 – 0.71| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.8%
- 2–013.3%
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–08.5%
- 0–07.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 44% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Spartak Moscow −1| Spartak Moscow line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| -1 | 40% | 26% | 34% |
| -0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| 0 | 66% | 21% | 13% |
| +0.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
| +1 | 87% | 10% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.