Marseille
Paris FC
The model leans Marseille at 46%. Expected goals: Marseille 1.75, Paris FC 1.22. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%. Marseille won 2 of their last 5; Paris FC won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Marseille | 49% | 2.05 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.89 | – | – | – |
| 2Paris FC | 26% | 3.90 | – | – | – |
Pick: Marseille. Calibrated probability 46% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.75 – 1.22| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–07.8%
- 1–26.7%
- 0–16.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Marseille −0.5| Marseille line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 23% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| 0 | 50% | 24% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 16% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.