Lyon
Auxerre
The model leans Lyon at 50%. Expected goals: Lyon 1.60, Auxerre 0.80. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 55%. Lyon won 3 of their last 6; Auxerre won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lyon | 55% | 1.81 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.66 | – | – | – |
| 2Auxerre | 17% | 5.72 | – | – | – |
Pick: Lyon. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.60 – 0.80| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.6%
- 2–011.6%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–09.1%
- 0–17.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lyon −0.5| Lyon line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| -1 | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| -0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| 0 | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 13% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.