Le Havre
Brest
The model leans Le Havre at 36%. Expected goals: Le Havre 1.12, Brest 0.99. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 57%. Le Havre won 0 of their last 4; Brest won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Le Havre | 37% | 2.70 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.07 | – | – | – |
| 2Brest | 30% | 3.29 | – | – | – |
Pick: Le Havre. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.12 – 0.99| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.7%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.2%
- 0–112.1%
- 2–07.6%
- 2–17.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Le Havre 0| Le Havre line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 23% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 30% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 20% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.