Nottingham Forest
Tottenham Hotspur
The model leans Nottingham Forest at 44%. Expected goals: Nottingham Forest 1.53, Tottenham Hotspur 1.05. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 52%. Nottingham Forest won 2 of their last 6; Tottenham Hotspur won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nottingham Forest | 47% | 2.12 | 2.40 | 40% | +8 |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.56 | 3.40 | 28% | 0 |
| 2Tottenham Hotspur | 25% | 4.03 | 2.90 | 33% | −8 |
Pick: Nottingham Forest. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.53 – 1.05| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–112.2%14.3%
- 1–011.6%9.1%
- 2–19.3%8.3%
- 2–08.9%7.7%
- 0–18.0%–
- 0–07.6%9.1%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Nottingham Forest −0.5| Nottingham Forest line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 24% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Nottingham Forest -0.25 | 55% | 1.80 | 2.05 | 47% | +9 |
| Asian handicap | Tottenham Hotspur +0.25 | 45% | 2.24 | 1.80 | 53% | −9 |
| Draw no bet | Nottingham Forest | 66% | 1.53 | 1.67 | 56% | +10 |
| Draw no bet | Tottenham Hotspur | 34% | 2.90 | 2.10 | 44% | −10 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.97 | 1.70 | 55% | −4 |
| Both teams to score | No | 49% | 2.04 | 2.05 | 45% | +4 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.