Crystal Palace
Manchester City
The model leans Manchester City at 51%. Expected goals: Crystal Palace 0.83, Manchester City 1.77. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 52%. Crystal Palace won 1 of their last 4; Manchester City won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Crystal Palace | 16% | 6.14 | 5.00 | 19% | −3 |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.96 | 4.20 | 23% | +3 |
| 2Manchester City | 58% | 1.71 | 1.62 | 59% | 0 |
Pick: Manchester City. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.83 – 1.77| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.1%
- 0–211.6%
- 1–110.9%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–07.4%
- 0–36.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Manchester City −1| Crystal Palace line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 12% | 83% |
| -0.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| 0 | 17% | 23% | 60% |
| +0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| +1 | 40% | 25% | 34% |
| +1.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.