Fulham
Chelsea
The model leans Chelsea at 37%. Expected goals: Fulham 1.35, Chelsea 1.45. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 58%. Fulham won 2 of their last 3; Chelsea won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fulham | 34% | 2.95 | 3.60 | 26% | +8 |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.62 | 3.50 | 27% | 0 |
| 2Chelsea | 38% | 2.60 | 2.05 | 46% | −8 |
Pick: Chelsea. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.35 – 1.45| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%
- 0–18.8%
- 1–28.6%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–18.0%
- 0–26.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fulham 0| Fulham line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 19% | 65% |
| -0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| 0 | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| +0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| +1 | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.