SC Heerenveen
PEC Zwolle
The model leans SC Heerenveen at 60%. Expected goals: SC Heerenveen 2.60, PEC Zwolle 1.19. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 65%. SC Heerenveen won 2 of their last 5; PEC Zwolle won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1SC Heerenveen | 67% | 1.49 | 1.55 | 62% | +6 |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.46 | 4.50 | 21% | −3 |
| 2PEC Zwolle | 15% | 6.82 | 5.50 | 17% | −3 |
Pick: SC Heerenveen. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 67%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.60 – 1.19| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 52% | 48% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.1%
- 3–17.9%
- 2–07.7%
- 1–17.0%
- 3–06.7%
- 1–05.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: SC Heerenveen −1.5| SC Heerenveen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| -1 | 47% | 21% | 32% |
| -0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| 0 | 68% | 17% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 10% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.