Fortuna Sittard
Cambuur
The model leans Fortuna Sittard at 44%. Expected goals: Fortuna Sittard 2.04, Cambuur 1.61. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 70%. Fortuna Sittard won 2 of their last 6; Cambuur won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fortuna Sittard | 47% | 2.12 | 1.62 | 59% | −12 |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.34 | 4.10 | 23% | 0 |
| 2Cambuur | 30% | 3.35 | 5.25 | 18% | +12 |
Pick: Fortuna Sittard. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.04 – 1.61| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 49% | 51% |
| Both teams to score | Yes70% | No30% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.7%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–26.9%
- 3–15.9%
- 2–05.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fortuna Sittard −0.5| Fortuna Sittard line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 20% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 21% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 16% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.