Parma
Monza
The model leans Draw at 31%. Expected goals: Parma 0.90, Monza 0.86. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 64%. Parma won 0 of their last 5; Monza won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Parma | 33% | 3.00 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 36% | 2.78 | – | – | – |
| 2Monza | 31% | 3.26 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 31% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.90 – 0.86| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 2.5 | 26% | 74% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 90% |
| Both teams to score | Yes34% | No66% |
Most likely scores
- 0–017.2%
- 1–015.6%
- 0–114.7%
- 1–113.3%
- 2–07.0%
- 0–26.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Parma 0| Parma line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 22% | 65% |
| -0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| 0 | 35% | 33% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 21% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.