Bologna
Sassuolo
The model leans Bologna at 50%. Expected goals: Bologna 1.60, Sassuolo 1.03. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%. Bologna won 2 of their last 6; Sassuolo won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bologna | 50% | 2.02 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.65 | – | – | – |
| 2Sassuolo | 23% | 4.32 | – | – | – |
Pick: Bologna. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.60 – 1.03| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%
- 1–011.6%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–09.3%
- 0–17.4%
- 0–07.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 45% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bologna −0.5| Bologna line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 24% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 15% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.