Predictions · USL Cup Grp. 1 · outside model coverage

Las Vegas Lights FC

02
Won

Oakland Roots SC

The model leans Oakland Roots SC at 36%. Expected goals: Las Vegas Lights FC 1.38, Oakland Roots SC 1.45. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. Las Vegas Lights FC won 3 of their last 6; Oakland Roots SC won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Las Vegas Lights FC35%2.89
XDraw28%3.64
2Oakland Roots SC38%2.64

Pick: Oakland Roots SC. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.38 – 1.45
LineOverUnder
1.577%23%
2.554%46%
3.531%69%
Both teams to scoreYes57%No43%

Most likely scores

  • 1111.8%
  • 018.6%
  • 128.6%
  • 108.2%
  • 218.1%
  • 026.2%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Las Vegas Lights FC 0
Las Vegas Lights FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.516%84%
-116%20%64%
-0.536%64%
036%25%39%
+0.561%39%
+161%21%19%
+1.581%19%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.