Fortaleza
Botafogo SP
The model leans Fortaleza at 53%. Expected goals: Fortaleza 1.67, Botafogo SP 0.70. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 58%. Fortaleza won 4 of their last 6; Botafogo SP won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fortaleza | 60% | 1.68 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.83 | – | – | – |
| 2Botafogo SP | 14% | 7.05 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fortaleza. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.67 – 0.70| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.7%
- 2–013.1%
- 1–110.9%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–19.1%
- 3–07.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 53% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fortaleza −1| Fortaleza line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| -1 | 34% | 27% | 39% |
| -0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| 0 | 61% | 24% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 11% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.