Predictions · Brazilian Serie B · outside model coverage
Fortaleza
2–0
Won
Ponte Preta
The model leans Fortaleza at 65%. Expected goals: Fortaleza 2.22, Ponte Preta 0.56. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 61%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match75
18
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fortaleza | 75% | 1.34 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.46 | – | – | – |
| 2Ponte Preta | 7% | 13.99 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fortaleza. Calibrated probability 65% (raw model output 75%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 93%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.22 – 0.56| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 2–015.3%
- 1–013.8%
- 3–011.3%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–17.7%
- 3–16.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 49% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fortaleza −1.5| Fortaleza line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| -1 | 51% | 24% | 25% |
| -0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| 0 | 75% | 17% | 8% |
| +0.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
| +1 | 92% | 6% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.