Predictions · Brasileirão Série B · outside model coverage
Fortaleza
1–0
Won
Novorizontino
The model leans Fortaleza at 38%. Expected goals: Fortaleza 1.29, Novorizontino 1.06. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 51%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match40
30
29
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fortaleza | 40% | 2.47 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.29 | – | – | – |
| 2Novorizontino | 29% | 3.43 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fortaleza. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.29 – 1.06| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%
- 1–012.3%
- 0–110.1%
- 0–09.6%
- 2–18.4%
- 2–08.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fortaleza 0| Fortaleza line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 23% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 19% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.