Predictions · Brasileirão Série B · outside model coverage
Vila Nova
2–1
Won
Fortaleza
The model leans Vila Nova at 35%. Expected goals: Vila Nova 1.32, Fortaleza 1.26. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match37
29
34
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vila Nova | 37% | 2.71 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.45 | – | – | – |
| 2Fortaleza | 34% | 2.94 | – | – | – |
Pick: Vila Nova. Calibrated probability 35% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.32 – 1.26| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–19.5%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–27.9%
- 0–07.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Vila Nova 0| Vila Nova line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 21% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 26% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 20% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.