Fortaleza
Palmeiras
The model leans Palmeiras at 50%. Expected goals: Fortaleza 0.89, Palmeiras 1.58. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 52%. Fortaleza won 4 of their last 6; Palmeiras won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fortaleza | 20% | 5.00 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.62 | – | – | – |
| 2Palmeiras | 52% | 1.91 | – | – | – |
Pick: Palmeiras. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.89 – 1.58| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.4%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–210.6%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–08.5%
- 1–07.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Palmeiras −0.5| Fortaleza line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 14% | 79% |
| -0.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| 0 | 21% | 25% | 54% |
| +0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| +1 | 46% | 25% | 28% |
| +1.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.