Santos
Palmeiras
The model leans Palmeiras at 43%. Expected goals: Santos 1.14, Palmeiras 1.57. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. Santos won 1 of their last 4; Palmeiras won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Santos | 27% | 3.77 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.65 | – | – | – |
| 2Palmeiras | 46% | 2.17 | – | – | – |
Pick: Palmeiras. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.14 – 1.57| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–28.2%
- 1–07.6%
- 2–16.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 44% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Palmeiras −0.5| Santos line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 17% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 25% | 47% |
| +0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| +1 | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| +1.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.