Palmeiras
Santos FC
The model leans Palmeiras at 60%. Expected goals: Palmeiras 2.22, Santos FC 0.81. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 50%. Palmeiras won 2 of their last 4; Santos FC won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Palmeiras | 69% | 1.46 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 4.99 | – | – | – |
| 2Santos FC | 11% | 8.77 | – | – | – |
Pick: Palmeiras. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 69%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.22 – 0.81| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.9%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 3–08.8%
- 1–18.7%
- 3–17.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Palmeiras −1.5| Palmeiras line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| -1 | 46% | 24% | 31% |
| -0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| 0 | 69% | 18% | 12% |
| +0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| +1 | 88% | 9% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.