Predictions · Brasileirão Série B · outside model coverage
Operario Ferroviario
2–1
Lost
Novorizontino
The model leans Novorizontino at 34%. Expected goals: Operario Ferroviario 1.09, Novorizontino 1.18. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 53%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match32
31
37
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Operario Ferroviario | 32% | 3.12 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.20 | – | – | – |
| 2Novorizontino | 37% | 2.73 | – | – | – |
Pick: Novorizontino. Calibrated probability 34% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.09 – 1.18| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.3%
- 0–112.2%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–010.3%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–17.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Operario Ferroviario 0| Operario Ferroviario line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 20% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 29% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.