Operario Ferroviario
America MG
The model leans Operario Ferroviario at 51%. Expected goals: Operario Ferroviario 1.64, America MG 0.74. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 57%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Operario Ferroviario | 58% | 1.73 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.76 | – | – | – |
| 2America MG | 16% | 6.41 | – | – | – |
Pick: Operario Ferroviario. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.64 – 0.74| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.1%
- 2–012.4%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–09.2%
- 0–16.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Operario Ferroviario −1| Operario Ferroviario line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| -1 | 32% | 26% | 41% |
| -0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| 0 | 59% | 24% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 12% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.