Predictions · Brazilian Serie B · outside model coverage
Juventude
3–0
Won
Ponte Preta
The model leans Juventude at 62%. Expected goals: Juventude 1.96, Ponte Preta 0.52. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 64%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match71
21
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Juventude | 71% | 1.41 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.76 | – | – | – |
| 2Ponte Preta | 8% | 12.59 | – | – | – |
Pick: Juventude. Calibrated probability 62% (raw model output 71%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.96 – 0.52| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes35% | No65% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.4%
- 2–016.1%
- 3–010.5%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–18.4%
- 0–08.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Juventude −1.5| Juventude line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| -1 | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| -0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| 0 | 72% | 19% | 9% |
| +0.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
| +1 | 91% | 7% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.