Predictions · Brasileirão Série B · outside model coverage
Goias
0–1
Lost
Juventude
The model leans Goias at 38%. Expected goals: Goias 1.19, Juventude 0.90. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 57%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match41
32
27
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Goias | 41% | 2.42 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.10 | – | – | – |
| 2Juventude | 27% | 3.77 | – | – | – |
Pick: Goias. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.19 – 0.90| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.7%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–012.3%
- 0–111.1%
- 2–08.7%
- 2–17.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Goias −0.5| Goias line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 24% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 30% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.