Botafogo SP
Juventude
The model leans Juventude at 35%. Expected goals: Botafogo SP 0.91, Juventude 1.05. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 60%. Botafogo SP won 1 of their last 4; Juventude won 2 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Botafogo SP | 29% | 3.41 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.95 | – | – | – |
| 2Juventude | 37% | 2.72 | – | – | – |
Pick: Juventude. Calibrated probability 35% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.91 – 1.05| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 87% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 0–114.9%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–113.5%
- 1–012.8%
- 0–27.8%
- 1–27.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Botafogo SP 0| Botafogo SP line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 20% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 31% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 23% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.