Botafogo SP
Criciuma
The model leans Criciuma at 39%. Expected goals: Botafogo SP 0.83, Criciuma 1.15. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 60%. Botafogo SP won 1 of their last 4; Criciuma won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Botafogo SP | 25% | 4.00 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.02 | – | – | – |
| 2Criciuma | 42% | 2.39 | – | – | – |
Pick: Criciuma. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.83 – 1.15| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 32% | 68% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 0–115.9%
- 0–013.8%
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.4%
- 0–29.1%
- 1–27.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Criciuma −0.5| Botafogo SP line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 18% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 30% | 43% |
| +0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| +1 | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.