Criciuma
Londrina EC
The model leans Criciuma at 62%. Expected goals: Criciuma 2.10, Londrina EC 0.64. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 58%. Criciuma won 1 of their last 4; Londrina EC won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Criciuma | 71% | 1.42 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 4.93 | – | – | – |
| 2Londrina EC | 9% | 10.89 | – | – | – |
Pick: Criciuma. Calibrated probability 62% (raw model output 71%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.10 – 0.64| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 2–014.3%
- 1–013.6%
- 3–010.0%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–18.7%
- 0–06.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 47% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Criciuma −1.5| Criciuma line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| -1 | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| -0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| 0 | 71% | 19% | 10% |
| +0.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
| +1 | 90% | 8% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.