Londrina EC
Athletic Club
The model leans Londrina EC at 34%. Expected goals: Londrina EC 1.38, Athletic Club 1.35. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%. Londrina EC won 2 of their last 5; Athletic Club won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Londrina EC | 37% | 2.73 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.55 | – | – | – |
| 2Athletic Club | 35% | 2.84 | – | – | – |
Pick: Londrina EC. Calibrated probability 34% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.38 – 1.35| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%
- 1–09.1%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.2%
- 0–06.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 44% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Londrina EC 0| Londrina EC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 20% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 20% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.