Sport Recife
Athletic Club
The model leans Sport Recife at 50%. Expected goals: Sport Recife 1.69, Athletic Club 1.11. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%. Sport Recife won 0 of their last 3; Athletic Club won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sport Recife | 50% | 2.00 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.79 | – | – | – |
| 2Athletic Club | 24% | 4.22 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sport Recife. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.69 – 1.11| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.4%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.7%
- 0–16.8%
- 1–26.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sport Recife −0.5| Sport Recife line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 23% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 24% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 15% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.