Predictions · Brazilian Serie B · outside model coverage
Sport Recife
1–1
Lost
Atletico GO
The model leans Sport Recife at 38%. Expected goals: Sport Recife 1.10, Atletico GO 0.83. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 61%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match40
34
26
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sport Recife | 40% | 2.48 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.96 | – | – | – |
| 2Atletico GO | 26% | 3.84 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sport Recife. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.10 – 0.83| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 87% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.9%
- 0–014.5%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–112.0%
- 2–08.8%
- 2–17.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sport Recife 0| Sport Recife line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 24% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 31% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 18% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.