Athletic Club
Criciuma
The model leans Criciuma at 38%. Expected goals: Athletic Club 1.09, Criciuma 1.31. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 50%. Athletic Club won 1 of their last 3; Criciuma won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Athletic Club | 30% | 3.37 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.33 | – | – | – |
| 2Criciuma | 40% | 2.48 | – | – | – |
Pick: Criciuma. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.09 – 1.31| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%
- 0–111.9%
- 1–09.9%
- 0–09.1%
- 1–28.5%
- 0–27.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Athletic Club 0| Athletic Club line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 19% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 27% | 42% |
| +0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| +1 | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.