Predictions · Brazilian Serie B · outside model coverage
Criciuma
1–1
Lost
Ceara
The model leans Criciuma at 50%. Expected goals: Criciuma 1.38, Ceara 0.75. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 59%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match51
30
19
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Criciuma | 51% | 1.97 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.31 | – | – | – |
| 2Ceara | 19% | 5.26 | – | – | – |
Pick: Criciuma. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.38 – 0.75| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 2.5 | 36% | 64% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.4%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–011.9%
- 2–011.4%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–18.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Criciuma −0.5| Criciuma line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 27% | 48% |
| -0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| 0 | 52% | 28% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 14% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.