Predictions · Brasileirão Série B · outside model coverage
Nautico
1–0
Won
Ceara
The model leans Nautico at 50%. Expected goals: Nautico 1.49, Ceara 0.85. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 55%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match51
29
20
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nautico | 51% | 1.96 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.47 | – | – | – |
| 2Ceara | 20% | 4.95 | – | – | – |
Pick: Nautico. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.49 – 0.85| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.4%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–010.7%
- 0–09.7%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–18.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Nautico −0.5| Nautico line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 26% | 48% |
| -0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| 0 | 52% | 26% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 15% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.