Predictions · Brasileirão Série B · outside model coverage
Nautico
2–1
Won
Londrina EC
The model leans Nautico at 62%. Expected goals: Nautico 2.25, Londrina EC 0.72. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 53%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match71
19
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nautico | 71% | 1.40 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.22 | – | – | – |
| 2Londrina EC | 10% | 10.45 | – | – | – |
Pick: Nautico. Calibrated probability 62% (raw model output 71%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.25 – 0.72| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 2–013.0%
- 1–011.5%
- 3–09.7%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–18.3%
- 3–17.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Nautico −1.5| Nautico line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| -1 | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| -0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| 0 | 72% | 17% | 10% |
| +0.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
| +1 | 90% | 8% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.