Londrina EC
Botafogo SP
The model leans Londrina EC at 37%. Expected goals: Londrina EC 1.21, Botafogo SP 1.02. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 54%. Londrina EC won 2 of their last 5; Botafogo SP won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Londrina EC | 39% | 2.57 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.19 | – | – | – |
| 2Botafogo SP | 30% | 3.37 | – | – | – |
Pick: Londrina EC. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.21 – 1.02| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.3%
- 1–013.0%
- 0–111.0%
- 0–010.7%
- 2–18.0%
- 2–07.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Londrina EC 0| Londrina EC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 23% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 19% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.