Londrina EC
Avai FC
The model leans Avai FC at 36%. Expected goals: Londrina EC 1.28, Avai FC 1.36. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. Londrina EC won 2 of their last 5; Avai FC won 2 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Londrina EC | 34% | 2.95 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.49 | – | – | – |
| 2Avai FC | 37% | 2.67 | – | – | – |
Pick: Avai FC. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.28 – 1.36| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%
- 0–19.7%
- 1–09.2%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.0%
- 0–07.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 42% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Londrina EC 0| Londrina EC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 20% | 65% |
| -0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| 0 | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| +0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| +1 | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.