Predictions · Superettan · outside model coverage

Varbergs BoIS FC

21
Won

Östers IF

The model leans Varbergs BoIS FC at 54%. Expected goals: Varbergs BoIS FC 2.26, Östers IF 1.09. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 60%. Varbergs BoIS FC won 2 of their last 6; Östers IF won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Varbergs BoIS FC63%1.59
XDraw21%4.78
2Östers IF16%6.14

Pick: Varbergs BoIS FC. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.26 – 1.09
LineOverUnder
1.585%15%
2.565%35%
3.543%57%
Both teams to scoreYes60%No40%

Most likely scores

  • 219.8%
  • 208.9%
  • 118.6%
  • 107.9%
  • 317.4%
  • 306.7%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Varbergs BoIS FC −1
Varbergs BoIS FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.541%59%
-141%23%36%
-0.564%36%
064%19%17%
+0.583%17%
+183%11%6%
+1.594%6%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.