Predictions · Cup · outside model coverage
Högaborgs BK
0–4
Won
Östers IF
The model leans Östers IF at 67%. Expected goals: Högaborgs BK 1.38, Östers IF 3.48. Over 2.5 goals 86%, both teams to score 73%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match76
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Högaborgs BK | 11% | 9.38 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 13% | 7.72 | – | – | – |
| 2Östers IF | 76% | 1.31 | – | – | – |
Pick: Östers IF. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 76%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.38 – 3.48| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 95% | 5% |
| 2.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 71% | 29% |
| Both teams to score | Yes73% | No27% |
Most likely scores
- 1–37.6%
- 1–46.6%
- 1–26.5%
- 0–35.5%
- 2–35.2%
- 0–44.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 70% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Östers IF −2| Högaborgs BK line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
| -1 | 4% | 7% | 89% |
| -0.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| 0 | 11% | 12% | 77% |
| +0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| +1 | 23% | 17% | 59% |
| +1.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.