Predictions · Conference League Qualification · outside model coverage

IFK Göteborg

01
Lost

Gent

The model leans IFK Göteborg at 39%. Expected goals: IFK Göteborg 1.52, Gent 1.27. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. IFK Göteborg won 3 of their last 6; Gent won 4 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1IFK Göteborg42%2.39
XDraw27%3.64
2Gent31%3.26

Pick: IFK Göteborg. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.52 – 1.27
LineOverUnder
1.577%23%
2.553%47%
3.531%69%
Both teams to scoreYes56%No44%

Most likely scores

  • 1111.8%
  • 109.3%
  • 219.0%
  • 017.8%
  • 127.5%
  • 207.1%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: IFK Göteborg 0
IFK Göteborg lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.521%79%
-121%22%57%
-0.543%57%
043%25%32%
+0.568%32%
+168%18%14%
+1.586%14%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.