Borussia Mönchengladbach
Elversberg
The model leans Borussia Mönchengladbach at 50%. Expected goals: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.86, Elversberg 1.29. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%. Borussia Mönchengladbach won 3 of their last 4; Elversberg won 3 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Borussia Mönchengladbach | 50% | 2.01 | 1.90 | 50% | 0 |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.04 | 3.75 | 25% | 0 |
| 2Elversberg | 26% | 3.90 | 3.80 | 25% | +1 |
Pick: Borussia Mönchengladbach. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.86 – 1.29| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–110.3%13.3%
- 2–19.6%11.8%
- 1–08.0%10.0%
- 2–07.4%9.1%
- 1–26.7%7.7%
- 2–26.2%8.3%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Borussia Mönchengladbach −0.5| Borussia Mönchengladbach line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 22% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 23% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 15% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Borussia Mönchengladbach -0.5 | 51% | 1.97 | 1.90 | 51% | 0 |
| Asian handicap | Elversberg +0.5 | 49% | 2.03 | 1.95 | 49% | 0 |
| Draw no bet | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 66% | 1.52 | 1.40 | 66% | 0 |
| Draw no bet | Elversberg | 34% | 2.94 | 2.75 | 34% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 | 1.53 | 61% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | No | 39% | 2.57 | 2.38 | 39% | 0 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.