Predictions · LaLiga ·
Valencia
v
Barcelona
The model leans Barcelona at 54%. Expected goals: Valencia 1.04, Barcelona 2.14. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 58%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match17
22
62
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Valencia | 17% | 6.04 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.57 | – | – | – |
| 2Barcelona | 62% | 1.62 | – | – | – |
Pick: Barcelona. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.04 – 2.14| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.9%
- 0–29.5%
- 1–19.3%
- 0–18.9%
- 1–37.1%
- 0–36.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Barcelona −1| Valencia line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 11% | 83% |
| -0.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| 0 | 17% | 20% | 62% |
| +0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| +1 | 38% | 23% | 39% |
| +1.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.