Elche
Real Sociedad
The model leans Elche at 41%. Expected goals: Elche 1.78, Real Sociedad 1.47. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 65%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_Spain| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Elche | 44% | 2.27 | 3.20 | 30% | +14 |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.01 | 3.60 | 27% | −2 |
| 2Real Sociedad | 31% | 3.22 | 2.20 | 44% | −12 |
Pick: Elche. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Raw model output and calibrated probability are different things: the raw figure is what the model produced, the calibrated one is what past results say that raw figure has actually delivered. Calibration curve: all, 8,453 matches, fitted Sep 7. Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.78 – 1.47 · derived from expected goals| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–110.1%15.4%
- 2–19.0%9.1%
- 1–27.5%–
- 1–06.9%8.3%
- 2–26.6%8.3%
- 2–06.1%8.3%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
stored: Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Elche −0.5| Elche line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 21% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 23% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 17% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365_Spain| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Elche +0.25 | 64% | 1.57 | 1.93 | 50% | +14 |
| Asian handicap | Real Sociedad -0.25 | 36% | 2.76 | 1.93 | 50% | −14 |
| Draw no bet | Elche | 59% | 1.70 | 2.25 | 41% | +18 |
| Draw no bet | Real Sociedad | 41% | 2.42 | 1.57 | 59% | −18 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 | 1.62 | 58% | +6 |
| Both teams to score | No | 36% | 2.78 | 2.20 | 42% | −6 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.