Predictions · LaLiga ·
Barcelona
v
Void
Athletic Club
The model leans Barcelona at 69%. Expected goals: Barcelona 2.90, Athletic Club 0.77. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 51%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Spain80
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Barcelona | 80% | 1.25 | 1.20 | 79% | +1 |
| XDraw | 13% | 7.45 | 7.00 | 14% | 0 |
| 2Athletic Club | 6% | 15.55 | 12.00 | 8% | −1 |
Pick: Barcelona. Calibrated probability 69% (raw model output 80%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.90 – 0.77| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 2–010.7%
- 3–010.4%
- 2–18.3%
- 3–18.0%
- 4–07.6%
- 1–07.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Barcelona −2| Barcelona line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| -1 | 61% | 19% | 19% |
| -0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| 0 | 81% | 12% | 7% |
| +0.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
| +1 | 93% | 5% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.