Ipswich Town
Liverpool
The model leans Liverpool at 50%. Expected goals: Ipswich Town 1.14, Liverpool 1.89. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%. Ipswich Town won 5 of their last 6; Liverpool won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ipswich Town | 22% | 4.62 | 6.00 | 16% | +6 |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.09 | 4.75 | 20% | +4 |
| 2Liverpool | 54% | 1.86 | 1.48 | 64% | −10 |
Pick: Liverpool. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.14 – 1.89| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–110.4%9.1%
- 1–29.8%10.5%
- 0–19.1%7.7%
- 0–28.6%9.1%
- 1–36.2%8.3%
- 2–15.9%5.3%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 54%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Liverpool −0.5| Ipswich Town line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 14% | 77% |
| -0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| 0 | 23% | 22% | 55% |
| +0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| +1 | 45% | 23% | 32% |
| +1.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Ipswich Town +1.25 | 64% | 1.56 | 1.85 | 52% | +12 |
| Asian handicap | Liverpool -1.25 | 36% | 2.79 | 2.00 | 48% | −12 |
| Draw no bet | Ipswich Town | 29% | 3.49 | 4.33 | 22% | +7 |
| Draw no bet | Liverpool | 71% | 1.40 | 1.20 | 78% | −7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.73 | 1.53 | 61% | −3 |
| Both teams to score | No | 42% | 2.37 | 2.38 | 39% | +3 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.