Fulham
Crystal Palace
The model leans Fulham at 39%. Expected goals: Fulham 1.27, Crystal Palace 0.96. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 54%. Fulham won 2 of their last 3; Crystal Palace won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fulham | 42% | 2.37 | 2.30 | 41% | +1 |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.22 | 3.25 | 29% | +2 |
| 2Crystal Palace | 27% | 3.76 | 3.25 | 29% | −3 |
Pick: Fulham. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.27 – 0.96| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–013.7%7.7%
- 1–113.1%15.4%
- 0–010.8%9.1%
- 0–110.3%–
- 2–08.7%7.7%
- 2–18.3%7.7%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fulham −0.5| Fulham line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 24% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Fulham -0.25 | 51% | 1.97 | 1.95 | 49% | +1 |
| Asian handicap | Crystal Palace +0.25 | 49% | 2.03 | 1.90 | 51% | −1 |
| Draw no bet | Fulham | 61% | 1.63 | 1.57 | 59% | +2 |
| Draw no bet | Crystal Palace | 39% | 2.59 | 2.25 | 41% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.26 | 1.67 | 56% | −11 |
| Both teams to score | No | 56% | 1.79 | 2.10 | 44% | +11 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.