Brighton & Hove Albion
Leeds United
The model leans Brighton & Hove Albion at 44%. Expected goals: Brighton & Hove Albion 1.50, Leeds United 0.99. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 50%. Brighton & Hove Albion won 4 of their last 6; Leeds United won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Brighton & Hove Albion | 48% | 2.10 | 1.95 | 49% | −1 |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.51 | 3.50 | 27% | +1 |
| 2Leeds United | 24% | 4.20 | 3.90 | 24% | 0 |
Pick: Brighton & Hove Albion. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.50 – 0.99| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–012.4%7.7%
- 1–112.3%14.3%
- 2–09.3%9.1%
- 2–19.2%6.7%
- 0–08.3%9.1%
- 0–18.2%–
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Brighton & Hove Albion −0.5| Brighton & Hove Albion line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| -0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| 0 | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 16% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Brighton & Hove Albion -0.5 | 49% | 2.04 | 1.98 | 49% | 0 |
| Asian handicap | Leeds United +0.5 | 51% | 1.96 | 1.88 | 51% | 0 |
| Draw no bet | Brighton & Hove Albion | 67% | 1.50 | 1.40 | 66% | 0 |
| Draw no bet | Leeds United | 33% | 3.00 | 2.75 | 34% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.05 | 1.70 | 55% | −6 |
| Both teams to score | No | 51% | 1.95 | 2.05 | 45% | +6 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.