Brentford
Sunderland
The model leans Brentford at 50%. Expected goals: Brentford 1.46, Sunderland 0.85. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 55%. Brentford won 3 of their last 4; Sunderland won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Brentford | 50% | 1.99 | 1.62 | 59% | −8 |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.44 | 3.90 | 24% | +5 |
| 2Sunderland | 21% | 4.84 | 5.50 | 17% | +3 |
Pick: Brentford. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.46 – 0.85| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–014.5%12.5%
- 1–112.3%13.3%
- 2–010.6%11.8%
- 0–09.9%9.1%
- 2–19.0%11.1%
- 0–18.4%–
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Brentford −0.5| Brentford line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 26% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Brentford -0.75 | 44% | 2.25 | 1.83 | 53% | −8 |
| Asian handicap | Sunderland +0.75 | 56% | 1.80 | 2.03 | 47% | +8 |
| Draw no bet | Brentford | 71% | 1.41 | 1.22 | 77% | −6 |
| Draw no bet | Sunderland | 29% | 3.43 | 4.00 | 23% | +6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.27 | 1.80 | 52% | −8 |
| Both teams to score | No | 56% | 1.78 | 1.95 | 48% | +8 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.