Predictions · Conference League Qualification · outside model coverage

GAIS

10
Lost

Nordsjælland

The model leans Nordsjælland at 32%. Expected goals: GAIS 1.34, Nordsjælland 1.36. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 56%. GAIS won 3 of their last 6; Nordsjælland won 5 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1GAIS35%2.82
XDraw28%3.53
2Nordsjælland36%2.76

Pick: Nordsjælland. Calibrated probability 32% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.34 – 1.36
LineOverUnder
1.575%25%
2.550%50%
3.528%72%
Both teams to scoreYes55%No45%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.3%
  • 019.2%
  • 109.0%
  • 128.3%
  • 218.2%
  • 006.8%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 39% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: GAIS 0
GAIS lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.516%84%
-116%20%63%
-0.537%63%
037%26%38%
+0.562%38%
+162%20%17%
+1.583%17%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.