Beşiktaş
FC Midtjylland
The model leans FC Midtjylland at 47%. Expected goals: Beşiktaş 1.15, FC Midtjylland 1.69. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%. Beşiktaş won 5 of their last 6; FC Midtjylland won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Beşiktaş | 25% | 4.05 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.80 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Midtjylland | 49% | 2.04 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Midtjylland. Calibrated probability 47% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.15 – 1.69| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.4%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–28.4%
- 1–06.7%
- 2–16.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Midtjylland −0.5| Beşiktaş line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 16% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 24% | 50% |
| +0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| +1 | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| +1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.