Beşiktaş
Çorum FK
The model leans Beşiktaş at 61%. Expected goals: Beşiktaş 2.15, Çorum FK 0.73. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 53%. Beşiktaş won 5 of their last 6; Çorum FK won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Beşiktaş | 69% | 1.44 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 4.94 | – | – | – |
| 2Çorum FK | 10% | 9.60 | – | – | – |
Pick: Beşiktaş. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 69%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.15 – 0.73| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 2–013.0%
- 1–012.1%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–09.3%
- 1–18.8%
- 3–16.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Beşiktaş −1.5| Beşiktaş line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| -1 | 46% | 24% | 30% |
| -0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| 0 | 70% | 19% | 11% |
| +0.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
| +1 | 89% | 8% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.