Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
The model leans Sparta Rotterdam at 50%. Expected goals: Sparta Rotterdam 2.06, PEC Zwolle 1.48. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 68%. Sparta Rotterdam won 1 of their last 6; PEC Zwolle won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sparta Rotterdam | 50% | 1.99 | 1.95 | 49% | +2 |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.34 | 3.60 | 26% | −3 |
| 2PEC Zwolle | 27% | 3.74 | 3.75 | 25% | +2 |
Pick: Sparta Rotterdam. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.06 – 1.48| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 47% | 53% |
| Both teams to score | Yes67% | No33% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 2–19.1%7.7%
- 1–18.8%14.3%
- 2–26.7%9.1%
- 1–26.5%–
- 3–16.3%7.7%
- 2–06.2%8.3%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sparta Rotterdam −0.5| Sparta Rotterdam line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| -1 | 30% | 21% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 21% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 15% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: closing odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Sparta Rotterdam -0.5 | 51% | 1.96 | 1.98 | 48% | +3 |
| Asian handicap | PEC Zwolle +0.5 | 49% | 2.04 | 1.83 | 52% | −3 |
| Draw no bet | Sparta Rotterdam | 65% | 1.53 | 1.44 | 65% | +1 |
| Draw no bet | PEC Zwolle | 35% | 2.88 | 2.63 | 35% | −1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.48 | 1.50 | 63% | +5 |
| Both teams to score | No | 33% | 3.07 | 2.50 | 38% | −5 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.